Win-Loss Record: Across these 10 midterm election cycles, the S&P 500 posted positive price returns 6 times and negative returns 4 times during the August 1 – November 30 window. Average Return: The average price return across all 10 periods was roughly +2.83%.

A joint intervention by the U.S. and Japan to strengthen the yen directly attacks one of the key assumptions behind the yen carry trade, making the trade less attractive and potentially triggering rapid unwinding.

In our KCM April Commentary, we rigorously reviewed our January investment thesis through the lens of the “Fog of War.” War in Iran had degraded the reliability of traditional financial forecasts, introducing severe commodity volatility, energy supply disruptions, and deep policy uncertainty.

The data has taken on a mild stagflationary tilt. Growth and the labor market are softening at the same time inflation is re-accelerating. That combination boxes in the Fed and argues for rates biased higher across the curve, and leaves equities richly valued with little cushion. The one clear positive: credit markets remain calm, which is what keeps the expansion, and the stock market breadth confirms the price, intact for now.

A twelve-string guitar is, at its core, a six-string guitar doubled. Each string is paired with a companion, contributing a richness, resonance, and depth that a single string simply cannot produce alone. In the hands of a skilled musician, the result isn’t noise. It’s harmony.

These ten KCM charts all point in the same direction, the market is showing classic latecycle warning signs. Here is what each one is saying.